statistics

Last week I opened the KSU Sentential, our student newspaper. I was interested in an opinion ed piece on the effects of Obama and how it is influencing votes. This article focused on the aftermath of the off year elections both New Jersey and Virginia and how both went to the Republicans. The author spoke of how Obama campaigned for the democratic candidate in Virginia and yet this was not effective. He also went on to say that this was a message to the DNC that Obama is no longer "an invincible electoral engine" as he was a year ago. He also went on to claim that Obama and his politics is causing our country to become more republican. I would have to disagree. First, Virginia historically has voted for the party not in power when it comes to gubernatorial elections, even when Regan was in office.
The author goes on to quote a Gallop poll, "40 percent of Americans considering themselves conservative, 37 percent calling themselves moderate and 20 percent identifying themselves as liberal." yet when I researched the article it goes on to say, "Thus far in 2009, Gallup has found an average of 36% of Americans considering themselves Democratic, 28% Republican, and 37% independent. When independents are pressed to say which party they lean toward, 51% of Americans identify as Democrats, 39% as Republicans, and only 9% as pure independents." This shows how easily statistics can be manipulated. Yes Conservatives are the biggest group, yet more people vote democratically.
So if these three elections are predictors in the 2010 races what do you think? Virginia and New Jersey both switched parties in the gubernatorial races. However, the New York 23rd is also important especially since it determined a house seat. Is Obama moving the country to the right? Maybe. Lets not forget that Bush moved our country to the far left and beyond so maybe this is just it's way of fixing itself.